LEVERAGING GENERATIVE AI IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS - FORESIGHT AND DATA-INFORMED DIPLOMACY

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) will likely impact all aspects of the human experience and international relations are no exception. Decision-making in foreign policy is contingent on the availability of information, which is, however, often scarce. As a supporting tool for policymakers, states have come to employ various methods of foresight and scenario-building in order to better understand and evaluate the behavior of adversaries and the possible results of their own decisions. It is particularly the domain of foresight and data-informed diplomacy, where generative AI could significantly impact the decision-making process. This paper first maps out how generative AI can be leveraged to serve as a "hyper-informed" forecaster and advisor to foreign policymakers and then proceeds to problematize the said developments. Ethical and practical issues related to deterrence and decision-making authority of AI in the chain of command are then discussed as the new security dilemmas of AI integration into policymaking.