Gut-microbiota-based ensemble model predicts prognosis of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease

Abstract

Developing microbiome-based markers for pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) is challenging. Here, we evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic potential of the gut microbiome in PIBD through a case-control study and cross-cohort analyses. In a Korean PIBD cohort (24 patients with PIBD, 43 controls), we observed that microbial diversity and composition shifted in patients with active PIBD versus controls and recovered at remission. We employed a differential abundance meta-analysis approach to identify microbial markers consistently associated with active inflammation and remission across seven PIBD cohorts from six countries (n = 1,670) including our dataset. Finally, we trained and tested various machine learning models for their ability to predict a patient's future remission based on baseline bacterial composition. An ensemble model trained with the amplicon sequence variants effectively predicted future remission of PIBD. This research highlights the gut microbiome's potential to guide precision therapy for PIBD.