Surprise, ontological security, and Russia's imperialist cyberwarfare

Abstract

Why did Russia launch cyberwarfare against Ukraine well before the ground invasion, thereby abandoning the advantage of a surprise cyber-kinetic strike? Using ontological security theory, I argue that through this decision, the Kremlin sought to reaffirm Russia's imperialist self-identity by demonstrating Ukraine's alleged lack of sovereignty. The premature cyberattacks forced Kyiv to rely heavily on Western state and non-state actors and adopt radical technical and legal measures limiting its cyber-sovereignty. From the Kremlin's perspective, these moves could illustrate in practice Russia's imperialist claims about a weak and externally dependent Ukraine and ease the West and other actors into recognizing Russia's historical justification for the impending attack and its resurgence as a great power. Doing so was crucial before the kinetic strike, to assuage the Kremlin's anxiety regarding the invasion's potential to secure Russia in its great power identity and ensure its external recognition as such. This ultimately explains the earlier timing of the Russian cyberaggression.