Between the Belt and Road and the Indo-Pacific: Lithuania's strategic reorientation

Abstract

This paper examines the evolving dynamics of Lithuania's engagement with China's Belt and Road Initiative, analysing how Lithuania has navigated the intersection of economic opportunities, security concerns, and value-based foreign policy. Lithuania's initial participation in the BRI framework was a pragmatic attempt to diversify trade partnerships, attract investment, and enhance global connectivity. However, when these expectations failed to materialise, and concerns arose regarding the strategic implications of Chinese interest in key infrastructure, the BRI was increasingly framed not as an economic opportunity but as a potential security threat. Although this development is consistent with other CEE countries, Lithuania stands out as a small state that has coupled its reassessment of China policy with the adoption of an Indo-Pacific strategy, thereby embracing a competing framework to conceptualise regional order. Drawing on an inductive analysis of government documents and interviews, this paper demonstrates how Lithuania exercised its agency by shifting from engagement with the BRI to alignment with like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific. The findings suggest that Lithuania's case demonstrates how small states can adapt foreign policy through pragmatic risk management and values-based positioning.