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Assessing the role of selected constraints in Bayesian dynamic source inversion: application to the 2017 M-w 6.3 Lesvos earthquake

dc.contributor.authorKostka, Filip
dc.contributor.authorZahradník, Jiří
dc.contributor.authorSokos, Efthimios
dc.contributor.authorGallovič, František
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-23T12:10:40Z
dc.date.available2023-01-23T12:10:40Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14178/1667
dc.description.abstractA dynamic finite-fault source inversion for stress and frictional parameters of the M-w 6.3 2017 Lesvos earthquake is carried out. The main shock occurred on June 12, offshore the southeastern coast of the Greek island of Lesvos in the north Aegean Sea. It caused 1 fatality, 15 injuries, and extensive damage to the southern part of the island. Dynamic rupture evolution is modelled on an elliptic patch, using the linear slip-weakening friction law. The inversion is posed as a Bayesian problem and the Parallel Tempering Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to obtain posterior probability distributions by updating the prior distribution with progressively more constraints. To calculate the first posterior distribution, only the constraint that the model should expand beyond the nucleation patch is used. Then, we add the constraint that the model should reach a moment magnitude similar to that obtained from our centroid moment tensor inversion. For the final posterior distribution, 15 acceleration records from Greek and Turkish strong motion networks at near regional distances (approximate to 30-150 km) in the frequency range of 0.05-0.15 Hz are used. The three posterior distributions are compared to understand how much each constraint contributes to resolving different quantities. The most probable values and uncertainties of individual parameters are also calculated, along with their mutual trade-offs. The features best determined by seismograms in the final posterior distribution include the position of the nucleation region, the mean direction of rupture (towards WNW), the mean rupture speed (with 68 per cent of the distribution lying between 1.4 and 2.6 kms(-1)), radiated energy (12-65 TJ), radiation efficiency (0.09-0.38) and the mean stress drop (2.2-6.5 MPa).en
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab359
dc.rightsThis article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International©: 2021 Filip Kostka, Jiří Zahradník, Efthimios Sokos and František Gallovič. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved
dc.titleAssessing the role of selected constraints in Bayesian dynamic source inversion: application to the 2017 M-w 6.3 Lesvos earthquakeen
dcterms.accessRightsopenAccess
dcterms.licensehttps://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab359
dc.date.updated2023-10-02T06:12:51Z
dc.subject.keywordEarthquake dynamicsen
dc.subject.keywordWaveform inversionen
dc.subject.keywordProbability distributionsen
dc.relation.fundingReferenceinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/UK/GAUK/GAUK1698218
dc.relation.fundingReferenceinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/UK/SVV/SVV260581
dc.date.embargoStartDate2023-10-02
dc.type.obd73
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/gji/ggab359
dc.identifier.utWos000741350600015
dc.identifier.eidScopus2-s2.0-85119036339
dc.identifier.obd619734
dc.identifier.rivRIV/00216208:11320/22:10452075
dc.subject.rivPrimary10000::10500
dcterms.isPartOf.nameGeophysical Journal International
dcterms.isPartOf.issn0956-540X
dcterms.isPartOf.journalYear2022
dcterms.isPartOf.journalVolume228
dcterms.isPartOf.journalIssue1
uk.faculty.primaryId116
uk.faculty.primaryNameMatematicko-fyzikální fakultacs
uk.faculty.primaryNameFaculty of Mathematics and Physicsen
uk.department.primaryId1276
uk.department.primaryNameKatedra geofyzikycs
uk.department.primaryNameDepartment of Geophysicsen
dc.description.pageRange711-727
dc.type.obdHierarchyCsČLÁNEK V ČASOPISU::článek v časopisu::původní článekcs
dc.type.obdHierarchyEnJOURNAL ARTICLE::journal article::original articleen
dc.type.obdHierarchyCode73::152::206en
uk.displayTitleAssessing the role of selected constraints in Bayesian dynamic source inversion: application to the 2017 M-w 6.3 Lesvos earthquakeen


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